👩🎓 🧑🎓 "Technical analysis" is a method of studying stock behavior by analyzing charts to forecast future price trends. Technical analysts examine stock behavior based on price and trading volume (or trading value), considering them as important sources of information for technical analysis.
💥However, the strategies used in technical analysis are not formulated without principles. In fact, they are based on three concepts or beliefs:
1. Price Behavior Reflects All Information: According to this concept, the price of a stock reflects all relevant information. Economic, political, and other changes that impact supply and demand in the stock market will affect the price. Since the price is determined by the interaction of supply and demand, positive changes lead to increased demand surpassing supply (greater buying pressure than selling pressure), resulting in price increases. Conversely, negative changes lead to increased supply surpassing demand (greater selling pressure than buying pressure), leading to price declines.
👩🎓 🧑🎓 However, technical analysts primarily focus on price and volume data for analysis. This approach narrows the scope of study compared to fundamental analysis, which delves into the causes behind price changes. While analyzing fundamentals, the driving forces behind changes in supply and demand are thoroughly examined. Both approaches aim to solve the problem of determining the direction of stock prices, although they differ in their analytical models.
2. Price Trends Continue Until Reversal: This concept suggests that a price trend will persist until there is a confirmed reversal. The preceding explanation provides a complete understanding of this concept. For instance, if you throw a ping-pong ball into the air (where the ping-pong ball represents a stock price), you can observe that the ball will continue moving upward, following the initial direction of the throw. However, over time, the momentum gradually weakens, and the ball starts to slow down due to various reasons. Eventually, the upward momentum exhausts, and the ping-pong ball starts to fall. Therefore, the movement of the ping-pong ball, from the throw until just before it starts to fall, represents an upward trend. After the end of the upward trend, the direction changes to a downtrend when the ball begins to fall.
💥It is important to note that technical analysis and fundamental analysis ultimately aim to determine the direction of stock prices, although they employ different analytical approaches. Technical analysis focuses on price and volume data, while fundamental analysis delves into the underlying causes of price movements. By understanding and utilizing these concepts, technical analysts attempt to make informed predictions about future price trends.
3. Patterns or behaviors observed in the past can be applied in the present and future, reflecting the concept of "history repeats itself." Technical analysis relies on price and volume, which capture the overall effect of available data (information set) for forecasting. Price and volume data serve as indicators of market psychology, such as courage or fear, which remain consistent across different eras. Therefore, patterns that occurred in the past, reflecting the psychology of that time, can still be relevant today. They provide insights and probabilities for the future direction of stock movements.
👩🎓 🧑🎓 All three concepts mentioned above are fundamental beliefs and form the basis of technical analysis. It is important to understand that these principles are based on underlying ideas. The chart itself is not the cause of stock price fluctuations; it is merely a visual representation. However, through the study of technical analysis, you gain tools to analyze and interpret what the stock price is indicating. It helps you understand the potential direction of price movement and identifies opportunities for trend changes.