ZScore Reversal Strategy (C#)

ZScore Reversal Strategy

The ZScore Reversal strategy measures how far price deviates from a moving average in terms of standard deviations. The resulting Z-Score highlights statistically stretched conditions that may snap back toward the mean.

Testing indicates an average annual return of about 91%. It performs best in the stocks market.

A trade is opened long when the Z-Score falls below a negative threshold, signalling an oversold market. A short trade is taken when the Z-Score rises above the positive threshold. The position is closed once the Z-Score crosses back through zero, indicating price has normalized.

This technique is attractive for mean reversion traders who prefer objective entry levels. The stop-loss percentage keeps adverse moves manageable while waiting for the reversion.

Details

• Entry Criteria:
  • Long: Z-Score < -Threshold
  • Short: Z-Score > Threshold
• Long/Short: Both sides.
• Exit Criteria:
  • Long: Exit when Z-Score crosses above 0
  • Short: Exit when Z-Score crosses below 0
• Stops: Yes, percent stop-loss.
• Default Values:
  • LookbackPeriod = 20
  • ZScoreThreshold = 2
  • StopLossPercent = 2 The Z-Score is (close - SMA) / StdDev, with the simple moving average and the standard deviation of closes over the same LookbackPeriod candles. The stop is a fixed StopLossPercent of the entry price, watched between candles as well. An entry signal against an open position reverses it.
  • CandleType = TimeSpan.FromMinutes(10)
• Filters:
  • Category: Mean Reversion
  • Direction: Both
  • Indicators: Z-Score
  • Stops: Yes
  • Complexity: Intermediate
  • Timeframe: Intraday
  • Seasonality: No
  • Neural networks: No
  • Divergence: No
  • Risk Level: Medium