divplaced_ma.png 💥In the previous section, we discussed shifting the moving average up and down to form a band that helps filter out false signals. Using the same idea, we can filter out false signals by shifting the moving averages, but this time to the right instead of up and down. 💥Moving the moving average to the right slows down the signals generated by the moving averages. Although this can be a disadvantage, it has a positive effect by reducing jitter and making fake crossovers of the price line with moving averages more difficult to occur. The effect is similar to filtering out false signals, so this method should be applied to moving averages with a short number of days to compensate for the slowness of the signal caused by shifting. 💥One admired technical analyst and expert in using this method is Joe Dinapoli, who named this method of shifting the moving average to the right \"Displaced Moving Average.\" He suggests using a 25-day moving average with a 3-day shift to the right (symbolic 25x3) and a 3-day displaced 3-day moving average (3x3). 💥For trading signals, it is the same as using a simple moving average: a cut up signal indicates a buy, and a cut down signal indicates a sell, only that the signal will happen a little later, but there will be fewer false signals, which is a characteristic of the displaced moving average. DisplacedMovingAverage-5c86ae4b46e0fb00012c6739.png 💥Dinapoli also proposed the concept of Double Repenetration (DR) as a supplement to the displaced moving average. If the price closes below the displaced moving average, then bounces back above it, and then crosses below the displaced moving average again (i.e., it crosses two times, hence the name double repenetration), it appears that the short-term trend of the price during the double repenetration is relatively flat. This is a trend change signal that is more pronounced than a normal downtrend, and in the case of an uptrend, it only changes direction. However, the double repenetration doesn\u0027t have to happen every time a trend changes. It only makes the signal stronger if it does occur. 💥However, Dinapoli noted that although the displaced moving average (even with DR) gives good signals, it is prone to errors. Therefore, it should be accompanied by signals based on Fibonacci ratios.
💥Moving Average (MA) is a popular technical analysis tool that is used to smooth out price action and identify trends. It is calculated by averaging a selected number of prices, usually closing prices, over a specific period of time. The Moving Average is then plotted on the price chart to provide traders with an indication of the direction of the trend. 💥Moving Average Channels are two lines drawn above and below a Moving Average line at a certain distance or percentage. This creates a channel around the Moving Average line that acts as a dynamic support and resistance zone. When prices move above the upper channel line, it suggests that the trend is bullish, and when prices move below the lower channel line, it suggests that the trend is bearish. 💥Shifted Moving Averages are Moving Averages that are displaced forward or backward in time. This means that the Moving Average is calculated using past prices, but is plotted ahead of current price action. This can be useful in identifying potential support and resistance levels that may not be visible on the price chart using traditional Moving Averages. 💥Envelope Formation is a technique that uses two Moving Averages that are shifted a certain percentage or distance away from each other. The area between the two Moving Averages creates a channel or envelope around the price action, which acts as a dynamic support and resistance zone. The Envelope Formation can be useful in identifying potential trend reversals when prices move beyond the channel boundaries. 💥Overall, Moving Averages and their variations can be effective tools in identifying trends and potential support and resistance levels. Traders should use them in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and indicators to confirm signals and make informed trading decisions. 💥Additionally, traders can also use Moving Average Shift to identify potential support and resistance levels. A Moving Average Shift is created by shifting the Moving Average line forward or backward in time. This can help identify levels where the Moving Average has acted as support or resistance in the past and may do so again in the future. 💥Moving Average Envelopes are another technical analysis tool that can act as support and resistance levels. They are similar to Moving Average Channels, but instead of being drawn at a fixed distance or percentage from the Moving Average line, they are drawn at a fixed percentage of the price. This creates a channel that widens or narrows based on the volatility of the price. When prices move above the upper envelope line, it suggests that the trend is bullish, and when prices move below the lower envelope line, it suggests that the trend is bearish. 💥Overall, Moving Averages, Moving Average Channels, Moving Average Shifts, and Moving Average Envelopes can all be used to identify potential support and resistance levels and help traders identify trends in the market. 💥💥The Moving Average line that uses a short number of days in its calculation may give false signals because it moves too quickly. To filter out these false signals, some technical analysts prefer to use a Shifted Moving Average line. In the case of a buy signal, the Moving Average is shifted up, while in the case of a sell signal, it is shifted down. Shifts are generally expressed as a percentage of the Moving Average, and they are often used with Moving Averages that use a short number of days for their calculations. 💥Another important use of shifting the Moving Average line is to create an Envelope that serves as a framework for price movements. In practice, this is often referred to as a Moving Average Channel or Band. The Envelope is used as a short-term support and resistance zone, and the price will move within this Channel or Band as long as the trend remains unchanged. To determine whether the trend is changing or not, the primary tool used is the central Moving Average. In essence, this system uses the Moving Average as a trading signal for the primary trend, while the Channel or Band serves as a secondary trend trading signal that moves along with the primary trend. 💥The upper line of the Band (Upper Channel) acts as a resistance. When the price approaches the Upper Band, it serves as a warning signal that the price has already risen too high, and traders should gradually sell some of their holdings to take profit in the short term. For the long term, it is advisable to follow the main trend using simple moving averages. On the other hand, the lower channel of the band acts as support, meaning that if the price falls close to the Lower Band, it is a warning that the price has dropped significantly, and traders should be prepared to wait for some time in the short term. 💥In practice, traders should understand the difference between shifting a moving average to filter out false signals and shifting a moving average to create a support/resistance envelope. They must always be aware of what they are doing and the purpose of their Shift. There are several ways to create a Moving Average Channel or Band. 👉This method is built on moving average lines, with the Upper Channel calculated from the high and the Lower Channel calculated from the low. We call this band the High-Low Channel. The most commonly used values are the 10-day average of the high and the 8-day average of the low. This method is commonly used to filter out false signals, but it can also be modified to create an envelope if appropriate parameters are set. 👉Percent Shift: This method shifts the moving average up (to the Upper Channel) and down (to the Lower Channel) by a percentage of the moving average calculated from closing prices. A popular percentage shift amount is 3.5-4% for a 20-25 day moving average. This is also a way to filter out false signals. However, this method has a disadvantage, which is that the magnitude of the shift when measured in absolute terms is small when the price is low, but quite large when the price is high. Therefore, the size of the band will continue to widen as the price goes up, and gradually shrink as the price falls. This may cause traders to buy too soon (due to a low price and less shift) or sell too late (due to a high price and high shift). 👉The method of shifting to create an envelope originated from a study by John Hurst, which was conducted in the days when computers were not as prevalent as they are today. The envelope is based on the moving average, whose number of days is determined by the length of the cycle, and must be able to cover price movements in a shorter cycle. However, this is a rather subjective approach since different people may draw different images. Moving-Average-Channel-Day-Trade-Winning-Trade.jpg Moving-Average-Channel-Day-Trade-Losing-Trade.jpg 💥Marc Chaikin, a well-known technical analyst at Bomar Securities, suggests that using a percentage shift for the moving average may not be flexible enough. For example, at one time, 3% may be too much (for instance, when the stock is moving sideways and not bouncing anywhere, the band will be too wide), while in other cases, such as when the stock follows a steep trend, 3% will be too narrow (the stock will run through the band like a locomotive). Hurst\u0027s envelope construction is also somewhat dependent on individual thoughts, which is uncertain. Therefore, the market should help determine the percentage of the shift at any given time. 💥The concept of Bomar Bands originated from Marc Chaikin\u0027s suggestion to shift the moving average in percentage terms such that it covers at least 85% of past prices. For example, if we use a 25-day moving average, the percentage shift today should be large enough to cover 85% of the prices of the past 25 days. The Bomar Bands adjust their percentage shift depending on market conditions, indicating trend inertia. If the market moves sideways, the percentage shift is small, but it adjusts to a higher percentage when the price follows a trend. The Bomar Bands narrow when the price starts to stagnate or the sales force runs out, even if the price continues to rise or decline. The width and narrowness of the Bomar Bands can be used as signal indicators of the main trend. 💥John Bollinger further developed this concept by shifting the moving average in proportion to the standard deviation of the price, typically 11.96 (or 12) times the standard deviation calculated from the number of days used to calculate the moving average. The resulting band should cover up to 90% of the past price if the price had a normal distribution. Bands calculated in this way are called Bollinger Bands, which have the same properties as the Bomar Bands, with their width and narrowness adjusted according to market conditions. The Bollinger Bands use standard deviation, which is an indicator of the variance or volatility of the price, making it easier to calculate than the Bomar Bands, which rely on subjective adjustment of the percentage shift.
Moving_Average_8.png 💥Using two moving averages can provide more precise buy and sell signals as well as act as support and resistance levels in both uptrends and downtrends. 💥To use two moving averages for buy and sell signals, traders often use a shorter-term moving average and a longer-term moving average. The shorter-term moving average reacts more quickly to price changes, while the longer-term moving average reacts more slowly. When the shorter-term moving average crosses above the longer-term moving average, it is a bullish signal and may indicate a buy opportunity. Conversely, when the shorter-term moving average crosses below the longer-term moving average, it is a bearish signal and may indicate a sell opportunity. 💥In an uptrend, the longer-term moving average can act as a support level, while the shorter-term moving average can act as a resistance level. Traders can use these levels to enter and exit positions. For example, during an uptrend, if the price falls to the longer-term moving average and bounces back up, it can be a buying opportunity. On the other hand, if the price rises to the shorter-term moving average and fails to break above it, it can be a selling opportunity. 💥In a downtrend, the longer-term moving average can act as a resistance level, while the shorter-term moving average can act as a support level. Traders can also use these levels to enter and exit positions. For example, during a downtrend, if the price rises to the longer-term moving average and fails to break above it, it can be a selling opportunity. On the other hand, if the price falls to the shorter-term moving average and bounces back up, it can be a buying opportunity. 💥It is important to note that using moving averages alone may not always provide accurate signals, and traders should always consider other technical indicators, as well as fundamental and market factors, when making trading decisions. moving-average_body_EURUSDMA.png.full.png (Double Moving Average Crossover) 💥The Moving Average (MA), also known as the moving average line, appears as a line that moves according to the price of a stock or index. This is caused by calculating the average of the stock price or market index using historical data, based on a user-specified period. It is an easy-to-use tool (indicator) that is popular among investors for finding trading opportunities (support and resistance) and identifying trends. Over time, the moving average has developed into various types, including the Double Moving Average Crossover. 💥Sometimes, prices may experience false fluctuations caused by abnormal events or excessive adjustments, which can result in moving averages giving false signals. This is especially true when using a low number of days to calculate the average since it can be easily affected by small movements, making it prone to errors. One commonly used method to avoid this is to use moving averages calculated on a small number of days to smooth out the average, and then use another moving average calculated from a larger number of days as a signal. This helps to reduce the false signals caused by irregularities and smooth out normal price fluctuations. However, this method can give slower signals because the moving average moves slower than the price. 💥Reading signals from two moving averages is similar to using a single moving average. If the short-term moving average crosses down the long-term average, it is a sell signal, while if the short-term average crosses over the long-term average, it is a buy signal. 💥In addition, the moving average can act as both support and resistance. During an uptrend, the price will be above the moving average, making the moving average act as support. If the price changes direction and falls below the support moving average, it indicates a trend change (downtrend). The moving average then becomes resistance when it returns above the price line.
technical-analysis-1.jpg 💥A moving average is a commonly used technical indicator in financial market analysis that helps to smooth out price data by creating a constantly updated average price over a certain period of time. The moving average is calculated by adding up the prices of the security or asset being analyzed over a certain period of time and then dividing by the number of prices in that period. As new prices are added, the oldest price is dropped, and the average is recalculated, resulting in a moving average line on the chart. 💥Moving averages can be used to identify the direction and strength of a trend. In an uptrend, when the price is above the moving average, it is a bullish signal, and traders may look for buying opportunities. Conversely, in a downtrend, when the price is below the moving average, it is a bearish signal, and traders may look for selling opportunities. 💥The most common types of moving averages are the simple moving average (SMA), which calculates the average price over a specific number of periods, and the exponential moving average (EMA), which gives more weight to the most recent prices. Traders can choose the period length and type of moving average that best suits their trading strategy and time frame. OHGVJOHQRFF2HIINCDWUVNV32I.jpg 💥A moving average is a smoothing tool used for tracking price trends that are almost over or about to enter a new trend. Its main purpose is to help remove anomalies from price information, such as sudden price rises or drops that may not have a specific reason behind them. By averaging out these prices, the moving average line becomes smoother. 💥During an uptrend, prices tend to rise, causing the moving average line to move higher. However, because the moving average is calculated using past data, it will always be lower than the current price. This is because the previous day\u0027s price is lower than today\u0027s, as per the definition of an uptrend. 💥In a downtrend, the price falls, but the moving average falls more slowly due to its weighted average nature. Once the price falls below the moving average, it confirms the trend change from an uptrend to a downtrend. 💥Buy signals occur when the price crosses its moving average from bottom to top or when the shorter moving average crosses the longer moving average from bottom to top. Sell signals, on the other hand, occur when the price crosses its moving average from above to below or when the shorter moving average crosses the longer moving average from top to bottom.